Forecasting

Forecasting can help us get a better sense of what will happen in the future, so that we can prepare appropriately. It is a significant aspect of EA strategy around pandemic preparedness (see biosecurity), AI alignment, animal product alternatives, and many other topics.

Bibliography

Aird, Michael (2020) Failures in technology forecasting? A reply to Ord and Yudkowsky, LessWrong, May 8.

Kokotajlo, Daniel (2019) Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post, AI Impacts.
An excellent summary of the evidence on good forecasting practices....

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