As it turns out, there is a near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions and global warming
Very interesting. Thanks!
What role would potential tipping points like permafrost loss play on the "near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions and global warming"? As far as I understood, there was a lot of uncertainty on that.
Some of the reasons I heard are: * it is difficult to understand that donating for technology innovation is really a donation, it feels more like investing in companies. * policy advocacy sounds like lobbying * it is kind of abstract if one compares it to other donations more widely known like planting trees; or donating medicines, vaccines or books to improve the health of the poorest. * the impact of the donation is uncertain and based on estimations only. * such a donation does not give this inner glow/good feeling that they expect to get when making a donation
This anecdotal evidence from Sweden that you mentioned is what I also noticed when talking to people interested in climate change, but not into the EA-movement.
It seems like the differentials between BURN and CATF are more than 10x and could be even 100x, if CATF eventually managed to have an impact of $0.20/ton. This does not seem unrealistic considering that the estimations of $1/ton are conservative.
The study I referenced about Eden Reforestation mentioned an estimated impact of $0.36/ton. This would actually be in the same order of magnitude as the conservative estimates for the most effective organisation. This is why I mentioned that organisation as a potential alternative.
An additional point to consider is that it might not be the same: * making a personal recommendation to someone that might probably not donate otherwise. * recommending it on a website.
If an organisation is recommended on a website, there is the risk that people that would otherwise donate to the most effective organisations will change their donation to those less effective ones, having a relative negative impact. If I remember well, this was one of the arguments Johannes used, which I found fair enough, especially if we are talking about orders of magnitude of difference.
Looking forward to hearing more thoughts on this topic :)
I often get asked from people outside the EA community what is the best place to make a donation to fight climate change. When I mention the options proposed by Founders Pledge (CATF, Carbon180), they are almost always put off and end up not donating at all. It seems to me like for them the concept of donating to policy advocacy or technology innovation is counterintuitive. Note that these people are usually not willing to invest hours reading about or listening to all the arguments that FP offers.
For those cases, I miss being able to confidently give an alternative that:
might be not as effective as those mentioned above,
but it is still at least an order of magnitude more effective than the usual donation
and it is kind of sexier/more understandable (meaning probably nature-based or supporting specific actions).
I lately mention Eden Reforestation Projects based on this post, but I am not sure how reliable that is study.
I guess I could sum-up my recommendation strategy as follows: 1. Give to the organisations recommended by Founders Pledge 2. Try to convince them of doing so, explaining why it is so effective 3. Give to an alternative organisation that is still pretty effective and easy to understand
What are your thoughts about this situation? Is there any organisation that could reliably be recommended as second-best and is at the same time easily understandable for non-EAs?
Advanced nuclear seems to be a technological solution where many pose a lot of hope. When is it estimated that it could be a mature enough to be implemented at large scale?
I am also curious about how would an organization like Eden Reforestation Projects rank when also considering that they are giving jobs to extremely impoverished people, so even if it is not a direct transfer of money like GiveDirectly does, it might be comparable and some of the benefits could also apply.
Also, I have a question regarding the following point:
"Once a forest is mature, it does not continue to absorb carbon. Instead, trees decay and grow in roughly equal measure, with the mass of the forest (and therefore the carbon sequestered) remaining roughly constant."
I've seen that statement often, but carbon is stored in the soil as well, isn't it? However, I have no clue about which % of the carbon absorbed by a tree remains in the soil and which % is released again when it dies.
Among the members who have explained their reasons for taking The Pledge, which quote did inspire you the most?
A Spanish translation is now also available.
I found the research of Founders Pledge quite interesting:
Very interesting. Thanks!
What role would potential tipping points like permafrost loss play on the "near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions and global warming"?
As far as I understood, there was a lot of uncertainty on that.
Some of the reasons I heard are:
* it is difficult to understand that donating for technology innovation is really a donation, it feels more like investing in companies.
* policy advocacy sounds like lobbying
* it is kind of abstract if one compares it to other donations more widely known like planting trees; or donating medicines, vaccines or books to improve the health of the poorest.
* the impact of the donation is uncertain and based on estimations only.
* such a donation does not give this inner glow/good feeling that they expect to get when making a donation
Thanks for the input, henrith.
This anecdotal evidence from Sweden that you mentioned is what I also noticed when talking to people interested in climate change, but not into the EA-movement.
Regarding Giving Green, there was a very interesting discussion in the forum.
It seems like the differentials between BURN and CATF are more than 10x and could be even 100x, if CATF eventually managed to have an impact of $0.20/ton. This does not seem unrealistic considering that the estimations of $1/ton are conservative.
The study I referenced about Eden Reforestation mentioned an estimated impact of $0.36/ton. This would actually be in the same order of magnitude as the conservative estimates for the most effective organisation. This is why I mentioned that organisation as a potential alternative.
An additional point to consider is that it might not be the same:
* making a personal recommendation to someone that might probably not donate otherwise.
* recommending it on a website.
If an organisation is recommended on a website, there is the risk that people that would otherwise donate to the most effective organisations will change their donation to those less effective ones, having a relative negative impact. If I remember well, this was one of the arguments Johannes used, which I found fair enough, especially if we are talking about orders of magnitude of difference.
Looking forward to hearing more thoughts on this topic :)
I often get asked from people outside the EA community what is the best place to make a donation to fight climate change.
When I mention the options proposed by Founders Pledge (CATF, Carbon180), they are almost always put off and end up not donating at all. It seems to me like for them the concept of donating to policy advocacy or technology innovation is counterintuitive. Note that these people are usually not willing to invest hours reading about or listening to all the arguments that FP offers.
For those cases, I miss being able to confidently give an alternative that:
I lately mention Eden Reforestation Projects based on this post, but I am not sure how reliable that is study.
I guess I could sum-up my recommendation strategy as follows:
1. Give to the organisations recommended by Founders Pledge
2. Try to convince them of doing so, explaining why it is so effective
3. Give to an alternative organisation that is still pretty effective and easy to understand
What are your thoughts about this situation?
Is there any organisation that could reliably be recommended as second-best and is at the same time easily understandable for non-EAs?
Advanced nuclear seems to be a technological solution where many pose a lot of hope. When is it estimated that it could be a mature enough to be implemented at large scale?
I am also curious about how would an organization like Eden Reforestation Projects rank when also considering that they are giving jobs to extremely impoverished people, so even if it is not a direct transfer of money like GiveDirectly does, it might be comparable and some of the benefits could also apply.
Great report, thanks!
Note that the links to impactmatters.org are broken since they now belong to Charity Navigator.
Here the articles you mentioned but retrieved from archive.org:
+ Overview
+ Methodology
Also, I have a question regarding the following point:
I've seen that statement often, but carbon is stored in the soil as well, isn't it? However, I have no clue about which % of the carbon absorbed by a tree remains in the soil and which % is released again when it dies.
How did you approach this?