· 10 posts
Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I have been awarded an FTX Future Fund grant and I work part-time at a prediction market.
Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.
I am uncertain about how to run an org for my FTXFF grant and whether prediction markets will be a good indicator in practice.
Is there a single place one can search all grants? Ideally with these evaluations attached where relevant?
If not, would it be worth supporting either @Austin and @Rachel Weinberg or @Hamish Doodles or @vipulnaik to make one? Seems like having searchable public databases is worth the $5 -20k it would cost.
I don't know if this will work, but I'm pretty interested in making the funding ecosystem less unipolar. Thanks for taking a big risk here and doing a weird, but to my mind, good thing.
Feels like someone should fund this work.
Maybe I should give a bit to this? I guess I can put it down as GWWC?
I strongly agree, but people don't really like this. There are, I sense two modes of thinking about comments:
Long/interesting comments are good for the former. Short, clear comments are good for the latter.
Hmm this feels a bit off. I don't think GiveDirectly should get special privelege. Though I agree the out of model factors seem to go well for GD than others, so I would kind of bump it up.
You could put on manifund - that seems like a great place for this kind of thing https://manifund.org/
Feels like the forum is adding a lot of features recently good work team and good work Lightcone.
I really appreciate that the forums shows me more of what the best version of me would want rather than maximising engagement.
Can we have emoji reactions to individual paragraphs?
You should post it then!
Do you have a sense of how much funding this informed?
I think this is a particularly good piece by Peter, though I am crying reading it. https://www.pasteurscube.com/for-samantha-a-eulogy/